Although this blog deals mainly with issues relating to life in China, occasionally other stories pop up that I feel strongly enough about to write about.
Sally Clark lost her first baby aged 11 weeks to Sudden Infant Death Syndrome or "cot death". Everyone was very supportive and nobody suspected any wrong doing. A year later, she lost a second child, aged 8 weeks and this time, Sally was arrested and charged with the murder of BOTH babies. She was convicted and sentenced to life in prison. However, the major factor contributing to her conviction was so called expert testimony from Professor Sir Roy Meadow, who stated that the chance of two cot deaths occuring in babies from the same mother was 1 in 73 million. He came to this conclusion by a simple calculation. The probability of a single cot death is around 1 in 8,500, so he concluded that the probability of this happening twice is 1/8500 squared. This is a valid calculation only if there is no correlation between the first and second death. For example, tossing a coin. The chance of a head is 50% assuming the coin is unbiased. The chance of 2 consecutive heads is 0.5 squared which is 25%.
However, it is widely accepted that the chance of a second cot death is greatly increased if there has already been a prior cot death in the family, lowering the probability of the second cot death to something like 1 in 60. This makes a lot of sense even to a layman like myself in the same way that if a mother dies of cancer, her daughter has a greater chance of suffering the same illness. Even the Royal Statistical Society later wrote to the Lord Chancellor, disagreeing with the 1 in 73 million statistic.
Sadly though, the jury accepted the expert testimony and it was only 3 years later that Sally's conviction was overturned on appeal and she was released.
I don't think many people can imagine the suffering endured by losing two of her children AND being branded as a monster child killer.
I opened this post by saying this is not related to China but in a way it is. There is so much outrage at human rights abuses by the Chinese authorities from the US and the UK, but there are clearly many outrageous injustices occuring in the west as well.
Sally died two days ago aged 42.
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